Vim li cas thiaj muaj Tungsten Carbide thiab Cobalt Hmoov Surged hauv nqe xyoo no?

I. Cobalt Powder Frenzy: DRC Export Halt + Ntiaj Teb Lub Zog Tshiab Rush

1. DRC txiav tawm 80% ntawm Kev Pabcuam Ntiaj Teb Cobalt

Cov koom pheej ywj pheej ntawm Congo (DRC) cov khoom siv78% ntawm lub ntiaj teb cobalt. Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2025, nws tau tshaj tawm tam sim ntawd a4 - hli cobalt raw khoom export ncua kev kawm ntawv, slashing thoob ntiaj teb cobalt mov los ntawm 26% (sib npaug rau 30,000 - tuj ib hlis tsis txaus). Cov smelters thoob ntiaj teb tau ntsib "kev kub ntxhov ntawm cov khoom siv raw," nrog rau cov nqi khiav lag luam poob mus rau 58%. Cov lag luam me - rau - nruab nrab txawm kaw, thawb cov hmoov cobalttus nqi nce los ntawm ¥ 3,500 / tuj hauv ib hlis- qhov dhia loj tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2024.

2. Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob Tshiab thiab 3C ua rau muaj Cobalt Scramble, Draining Stocks

Lub ntiaj teb tshiab lub zog tsheb muag tau teem kom nce 25% hauv 2025. Meanwhile,ternary lithium roj teeb (rau EVs) thiab cobalt - acid roj teeb (rau 3C li)yog fueling cobalt xav tau, uas tau nce yav dhau los 150,000 tons. Ib zaug txaus rau 45 hnub, cobalt hmoov stocks tam sim nokawg tsuas yog 28 hnub- ib qho khoom siv - thov qhov tsis txaus ntseeg uas yog tus nqi supercharging.

3. Hoarding and Long – Term Contracts Tsim ib tug nqe kauv

DRC qhov txwv tsis pub xa tawm ua rau muaj kev ntshai. Cov tub lag luam hoarded tshaj 30% ntawm cov khoom siv, tsav tsheb tus nqi nce 12%. Txhawm rau kom tsis txhob muaj kev poob siab yav tom ntej, cov neeg tsim roj teebtau kos npe ntev-term cog lus 3 lub hlis ntxov, ua tus nqi mus sij hawm ntev 8% siab dua qhov chaw. Qhov no tsim ib lub voj voog:nqe hikes → ntau hoarding → tus nqi ntau dua.

II. Tungsten Carbide Surge: Tight Global Mines + Booming Emerging Sectors

1. Quota txiav thiab kaw neeg tsis txaus siab tungsten khoom

Tshaj 60% ntawm lub ntiaj teb tungsten los ntawm ib cheeb tsam tseem ceeb. Nyob rau hauv 2025, thawj - puag ncig mining quotas raug txiav los ntawm 6.45%, thiab 30% ntawm cov mines me raug kaw vim nruj ib puag ncig cov cai. Tus nqi ntawm dub tungsten concentrate (raw khoom)ntaus ¥172,000/ton(cov ntaub ntawv siab). Txog rau lub Rau Hli, tungsten carbide hmoov nqi tau nce mus rau¥ 364/kg.

2. Photovoltaics, Kws muaj txuj ci, thiab Drones Tsav Explosive xav tau

Tungsten carbide tsis yog rau cov cuab yeej txiav!Photovoltaic tungsten xov hlau (nrog> 14% kev nkag mus thoob ntiaj teb)yog booming, nrog cov tuam txhab ua lag luam "billion - meter ntau lawm kab" khiav tsis nres. Kev tiv thaiv (nuclear fusion) thiab drone industries kuj tau snatching li tungsten carbide, nrog rau peb sectors.accounting rau 40% ntawm kev thov tshiab- ua lag luam ua lag luam thaum hmo ntuj.

3. Export Controls Spark lub ntiaj teb no Stockpiling Spree

Cov tungsten loj - cov teb chaws xa tawm tau qhia "ib qho - tso cai - ib - kev txiav txim" cov cai. Ntshai tsis txaus, cov neeg yuav khoom txawv teb chawspib hoarding 6 lub hlis ntxov, thawb tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb 13% siab dua cov qib hauv tsev. Nyob rau hauv Q1 2025, tungsten carbide export nqi dhia dhia 45%, thiab kev txiav txim txawv teb chaws ua 35% ntawm kev muag khoom - txawv teb chaws xav tau ntxiv roj rau hluav taws.

III. Tus nqi puas yuav nce ntxiv? Cov tuam txhab yuav teb li cas?

1. Luv – Term: Siab Volatility as Gaps Persist

• Cobalt hmoov: DRC qhov kev txwv tsis pub xa tawm yuav kav mus txog Q3 2025, tsim kom muaj 32,000 - tuj thoob ntiaj teb sib txawv. Tus nqi yuav swing ntawm¥260–280/kg.
• Tungsten Carbide hmoov: Nrog rau 15,000 - tuj raw khoom sib txawv thiab qhov xav tau siab tshaj photovoltaic, tus nqi yuav sim¥380/kg.

2. Ntev – Lub Sijhawm: Ib haiv neeg ntawm kev hloov chaw thiab kev tsim kho tshiab

• Cobalt: Cov tuam txhab tau hloov ntau lawm rau Indonesia (nrog cov players sab saum toj twb tsim cov nroj tsuag). Los ntawm 2026, lub peev xwm tshiab tuaj yeem yooj yim muab cov khoom siv.
• Tungsten Carbide: Saib xyuassilicon carbide tej cuab yeej(twb tau hloov 20% ntawm tungsten carbide). Cov tuam txhab yuav tsum pivot rau high-end khoom (xws li, nano - qib tungsten carbide, uas boosts profits los ntawm 50%).

3. Cov tswv yim rau kev ciaj sia: Kev Ruaj Ntseg Khoom Siv + Txhim Kho Tshuab

• Luv – Term: Xauv cov khoom siv nrog cov ntawv cog lus ntev lossis siv yav tom ntej los tiv thaiv tus nqi pheej hmoo.
• Ntev - Lub Sij Hawm: Kev nqis peev hauv R & D rau cov khoom lag luam siab kawg (xws li high-purity cobalt rau semiconductors, tungsten rau nuclear fusion). Siv thev naus laus zis los tuav tus nqi siab.

Qhov kev nce nqi no yog tsav los ntawmcov cai hauv cheeb tsam, kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb, thiab kev ua si peev. Rau cov tuam txhab thoob ntiaj teb, txoj kev vam meej txhais tau tias kev nkag siab "vim li cas cov khoom siv nruj" thiab "leej twg yuav ntau dua" - tom qab ntawd yog kev ruaj ntseg cov saw hlau lossis kev hloov pauv sai. Tsuas yog tom qab ntawd lawv tuaj yeem vam meej hauv cov khoom siv cua daj cua dub no.